Analysis: What a 'troop surge' in Iraq might accomplish

WASHINGTON – A surge of extra US troops into Iraq, a strategy reportedly under active consideration by the White House and US generals in Baghdad, might mean more than increased manpower. It could herald a shift in military strategy, as well.

With more troops, American ground forces could clear insurgents out of troubled Baghdad neighborhoods and then stay, say some proponents of a surge. Units could live in abandoned homes or government buildings, providing round-the-clock security in districts where death squads now roam.

But widespread "clear-and-hold" operations might require more troops than are available, say critics. They could slow the pace of development of Iraqi forces. And regardless of US strength in Iraq, success may depend upon Iraqi progress toward reconciling warring sectarian factions.

"Almost every expert agrees that a surge without conciliation can do little more than produce a cosmetic, temporary tactical victory that might mask US withdrawal and defeat," said Anthony Cordesman, a military expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), last week in a commentary on the surge issue.

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