Reports: Petraeus-Crocker classified plan seeks 'sustainable security by the summer of 2009'

Above: A sniper with the 3rd Infantry Division provides roof-top security at Patrol Base Murray in the Arab Jabour area of southern Baghdad in June.

U.S. Is Seen in Iraq Until at Least ’09

BAGHDAD -- While Washington is mired in political debate over the future of Iraq, the American command here has prepared a detailed plan that foresees a significant American role for the next two years...

The plan, developed by Gen. David H. Petraeus, the senior American commander, and Ryan C. Crocker, the American ambassador, has been briefed to Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and Adm. William J. Fallon, the head of the Central Command. It is expected to be formally issued to officials here this week.

The plan envisions two phases. The “near-term” goal is to achieve “localized security” in Baghdad and other areas no later than June 2008. It envisions encouraging political accommodations at the local level, including with former insurgents, while pressing Iraq’s leaders to make headway on their program of national reconciliation.

The “intermediate” goal is to stitch together such local arrangements to establish a broader sense of security on a nationwide basis no later than June 2009.

“The coalition, in partnership with the government of Iraq, employs integrated political, security, economic and diplomatic means, to help the people of Iraq achieve sustainable security by the summer of 2009,” a summary of the campaign plan states.

Read the rest at the NY Times

Planners Set 2008 Goal for Iraq Security

Col. Steve Boylan, chief spokesman for Petraeus, said the plan is still in the final editing stages and has not yet been put fully into effect. He said that while it sets an initial goal of achieving localized security by summer 2008, it does not make assumptions about specific levels of U.S. troops between now and then -- including how long the five extra brigades will stay...

Petraeus began developing the plan shortly after he arrived in Baghdad in February to replace Gen. George Casey, whose campaign plan focused more on transferring security responsibility to the Iraqi government than on establishing security throughout the capital.

Stephen Biddle, who was a member of a group that advised Petraeus last spring on development of the strategy, said in a recent interview that he saw little chance of success if the U.S. military continued to try to establish security, unconditionally, across all of Baghdad.

A better approach, Biddle said, is to use U.S. military power more selectively in a "carrot-and-stick" approach that rewards insurgent groups that choose to accept offers of a cease-fire. They would not be forcibly disarmed; they would choose to stop fighting. Those who refuse to cooperate would be dealt with militarily.

Even that more nuanced approach, in Biddle's estimation, stands only about a 10-in-1 chance of succeeding.

Read the rest at the LA Times

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