Opinion (Steven N. Simon): After the surge

Congress may still be debating President George W. Bush's surge strategy in Iraq, but the administration's strategy shift is now a fait accompli. With two of the five extra brigades already in Baghdad and a third on the way, the surge is going forward. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and General David Petraeus expect to know the results by early summer. Planning what happens next should start now.

Looking down the road, policymakers must face four grim realities:

The U.S. has already achieved all that it is likely to achieve in Iraq...

The United States cannot determine Iraq's political destiny militarily...

A continuing military commitment to Iraq may lead to a second defeat by siphoning resources and attention away from Afghanistan...

The Iraq war hamstrings the U.S. military, making it much harder to handle another serious contingency or coerce other adversaries.

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