Opinion (Scott Aiken): Future of Mideast is wildly unpredictable

The new Financial Harbor mega-complex in Bahrain

Here's a sure bet: Five years from today, the "outcome" of Iraq's wars will be neither terrorist disaster nor a stable nation.

One of the few sure things in world affairs is this: Any straight-line projection will be wrong.

Why wouldn't withdrawal of U.S. forces over the next year result in anarchy, creating a safe harbor for al-Qaida?

Why won't a long-term U.S. commitment to fighting Iraq's Sunni and Shiite insurgents as well as al-Qaida terrorists create a peaceful Iraq?

Why is some other "outcome" more likely? What will it be?

There is a single, complex answer.

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