Analysis: Military experts question Iraq pullback proposal

The Iraq Study Group

BAGHDAD, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Pulling back American troops into their bases in Iraq will reduce U.S. casualties, but it could also spark a firestorm of unrestrained sectarian violence that will sorely test the loyalties of the Iraqi army.

The bipartisan Iraq Study Group, which reports on Wednesday, has explored ways of moving forward U.S. policy in Iraq, where U.S. Defense Secretary designate Robert Gates said on Tuesday America was not winning the war and needed a new approach.

Military analysts have focused on leaked recommendations that U.S. troops shift from combat to concentrate on supporting and training Iraqi forces, who should do more of the fighting.

Some analysts interviewed ahead of the report's publication cautioned that such a proposal was fraught with peril when viewed against the backdrop of sectarian and insurgent violence that has defied previous U.S. and Iraqi efforts to rein it in.

"The short term will see a drop in (U.S.) casualties. But the military consequence of pulling back will be to cede the initiative to the enemy and to reduce the patrol presence that keeps enemy activity down," said Stephen Biddle of the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute.

"If we were to withdraw to bases, the intensity of the civil war is going to increase dramatically," he warned.

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