Analysis: Islamic caliphate a dream, not reality

RIYADH, Dec 13 (Reuters) - The creation of an Islamic caliphate, or empire, has long formed part of al Qaeda's world view, and it is a vision that seems to have unsettled Washington.

But experts say it will remain just a militants' dream.

Before he went into hiding in 2001, Osama bin Laden often talked of deposing Muslim rulers, seen as beholden to Western powers, and abolishing modern state borders to unite all Muslims under a caliphate -- an Islamic state where God's word was law ruled over by a caliph, or "successor" to Prophet Mohammad.

Now al Qaeda militants are talking about setting up a caliphate in west Iraq, and militants calling themselves al Qaeda in Yemen also said recently a caliphate is their goal.

Since September, U.S. President George W. Bush has warned several times that al Qaeda wants to set up a violent, radical Islamic empire based in Iraq, to unite Muslims under one aegis.

Baghdad was once the centre of an Islamic empire that lasted for four centuries -- but experts say the chances of a revival of the ancient Islamic institution are remote.

"Al Qaeda could set up an Islamic state in the west of Iraq, if there is no American army there. But it would be difficult for them to penetrate any other state where there is an army and state apparatus," said Saudi analyst Faris bin Houzam.

"Their big dream is to set up an Islamic state, but there's nothing to suggest it could happen," he added.

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