Analysis: U.S. dominance of Mideast ends

WASHINGTON, Nov. 27 (UPI) -- U.S. dominance in the Middle East has ended, giving way to a new era in the modern history of the region amid growing anti-American sentiment. This is the conclusion of a study by Richard N. Haas, president of the Council on Foreign Relations in an article titled "The New Middle East" published in the November/December 2006 issue of Foreign Affairs.

Expectations of a peaceful, prosperous and democratic Middle East based on the European model "will not be realized," says Haas. "Much more likely is the emergence of a new Middle East that will cause great harm to itself, the United States, and the world."

Haas writes that the most significant factor contributing to the end of this era has been "the Bush administration's decision to attack Iraq in 2003 and its conduct of the operation and resulting occupation."

Among the casualties of the war in Iraq is the Sunni's domination, a factor "which was strong enough and motivated enough to balance Shiite Iran." This, explains Haas, has given rise to tensions between Sunnis and Shiites. Fighting between the two rival Muslim groups has reached new heights in Iraq with a car bomb claiming more that 160 lives in a single day last week. And in Lebanon tension between the Shiite Hezbollah and Sunnis has reached the point where it could easily tip into armed conflict.

Another casualty of the Iraq war has been the rise of terrorism. Terrorists have gained a base in Iraq where they developed a new set of techniques to export, says Haas. The war in Iraq, says Haas has "reduced U.S. leverage worldwide" by tying down a large number of U.S. troops in the area.

Haas considers this as one of history's ironies. "The first war in Iraq, a war of necessity, marked the beginning of the American era in the Middle East and the second Iraq war, a war of choice, has precipitated its end." The most significant factor contributing to the demise of the U.S. domination in the Middle East, according to Haas, has been the Bush administration's decision to attack Iraq in 2003. Haas also points out other relevant factors such as the "demise of the Middle East peace process" and the "failure of traditional Arab regimes to counter the appeal of radical Islamism."

Read the rest at UPI