Expert: Iraq army has only 50% chance of success, no U.S. troop reductions foreseeable

WASHINGTON, Oct. 10 (UPI) -- The Iraqi army has only a 50/50 chance of succeeding, a leading U.S. analyst said Tuesday.

"If things go well, Iraqi forces will steadily improve with time and play a critical role in bringing the level of security Iraq needs to make political compromise and conciliation work," Anthony H. Cordesman, the Arleigh Burke chair in strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote.

"Things can only go well, however, if U.S. and other outside powers have the patience and will to support Iraq as it develops into such a state for at least two to three more years of active fighting," Cordesman wrote. "They will need to provide massive additional economic aid to help Iraq unify and develop.

"Major assistance and advisory programs will need to be in place until at least 2010, and probably 2015," he added.

"The present odds of such success are at best even," Cordesman concluded.

Progress in Iraq in developing the Iraqi armed forces remained slow, Cordesman wrote. "U.S. and MNF-I plans that called for Iraqi forces to allow significant Coalition troop reductions in 2006 have failed, and the so-called 'year of the police' has barely begun, and will at best gather momentum in 2007," he wrote.

Therefore, "Real-world Iraqi dependence on the present scale of U.S. and allied military support and advisory efforts will continue well into 2008 at the earliest, and probably to 2010," Cordesman continued. "Major U.S. and allied troop reductions need to be put on hold indefinitely."

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